Climate Uncertainties & Risks

Future climate risks are challenging to quantify due to their dependence on uncertain greenhouse gas emissions and Earth-system dynamics. We work on characterizing how risks such as sea-level rise and water shortages respond to socioeconomic changes (such as emissions pathways and economic growth) and their interactions with Earth-system uncertainties.

Selected Publications

Seizing the policy opportunities for health- and equity-improving energy decisions
Wei Peng, Susan Annenberg, John Bistline, Mark Budolfson, Sara M. Constantino, Kelly Crawford, Kenneth J. Davis, Peter DeCarlo, Allen Fawcett, Hayden Hashimoto, Casey Helgeson, Xinyuan Huang, Gokul Iyer, Klaus Keller, Harry Kennard, Kathleen M. Kennedy, Robert Laumbach, Vijay S. Limaye, Erin Mayfield, James MacFarland, Michelle Meyer, Paul Miller, Andrew Place, Nicholas Roy, Christine Schell, Noah Scovronick, Steven J. Smith, Vivek Srikrishnan, Donna Voorhees, Yuanyu Xie
One Earth, 8 (2), 101171 (2025)

 published

Coastal adaptation and damage costs at different global warming thresholds

Coastal adaptation and damage costs at different global warming thresholds
Tony E. Wong, Selorm Dake, Kelly Feke, Chloe Darnell, Vivek Srikrishnan
npj Natural Hazards, 2, 35 (2025)

 published

 preprint

 repository

The interplay of future emissions and geophysical uncertainties for future sea level rise

The interplay of future emissions and geophysical uncertainties for future sea level rise
Chloe Darnell, Lisa Rennels, Frank C. Errickson, Tony E. Wong, Vivek Srikrishnan
In Revision (2025)

 preprint

 repository

Environmental trade-offs in hydrothermal carbonization process selection determined via attributional life cycle assessment and multi-criteria decision making
Demola Ogunnaike, Vivek Srikrishnan, Jillian L. Goldfarb
In Revision (2025)

 repository

Technology indicators enable early detection of decarbonization failures

Technology indicators enable early detection of decarbonization failures
Jingyu Shiwang, Wei Peng, Xinyuan Huang, Gokul Iyer, Vivek Srikrishnan, Klaus Keller
Submitted (2025)

Heterogeneous vulnerability of zero-carbon power grids under climate-technological changes
M. Vivienne Liu, Vivek Srikrishnan, Elnaz Kabir, Scott Steinschneider, C. Lindsay Anderson
Under Review (2025)

 preprint

 repository

Quantifying the impact of multi-scale climate variability on electricity prices in a renewable-dominated power grid

Quantifying the impact of multi-scale climate variability on electricity prices in a renewable-dominated power grid
Elnaz Kabir, Vivek Srikrishnan, M. Vivienne Liu, Scott Steinschneider, C. Lindsay Anderson
Renewable Energy, 223, 120013 (2024)

 published

Integrating values to improve the relevance of climate‐risk research

Integrating values to improve the relevance of climate‐risk research
Casey Helgeson, Klaus Keller, Robert E. Nicholas, Vivek Srikrishnan, Courtney Cooper, Erica A. H. Smithwick, Nancy Tuana
Earth's Future, 12 (10), e2022EF003025 (2024)

 published

 preprint

Balancing multiple forest management objectives under climate change in central Wisconsin, U.S.A.

Balancing multiple forest management objectives under climate change in central Wisconsin, U.S.A.
Melissa Lucash, Neil Williams, Vivek Srikrishnan, Klaus Keller, Robert M. Scheller, Casey Helgeson, Robert E. Nicholas, Erica A. H. Smithwick
Trees, Forests and People, 14, 100460 (2023)

 published

Probabilistic projections of baseline 21<sup>st</sup> century CO<sub>2</sub> emissions using a simple calibrated integrated assessment model

Probabilistic projections of baseline 21st century CO2 emissions using a simple calibrated integrated assessment model
Vivek Srikrishnan, Yawen Guan, Richard S. J. Tol, Klaus Keller
Climatic Change, 170, 37 (2022)

 published

 preprint

 repository

MimiBRICK.jl: A Julia package for the BRICK model for sea-level change in the Mimi integrated modeling framework
Tony E. Wong, Lisa Rennels, Frank C. Errickson, Vivek Srikrishnan, Alexander Bakker, Klaus Keller, David Anthoff
Journal of Open Source Software, 7 (76), 2556 (2022)

 published

 repository

Effects of global climate mitigation on regional air quality and health

Effects of global climate mitigation on regional air quality and health
Xinyuan Huang, Vivek Srikrishnan, Jonathan R. Lamontagne, Klaus Keller, Wei Peng
Nature Sustainability, 6, 1054–1066 (2022)

 published

 preprint

Climate risk management

Climate risk management
Klaus Keller, Casey Helgeson, Vivek Srikrishnan
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 49 (1), 95-116 (2021)

 published

Equity is more important for the social cost of methane than climate uncertainty

Equity is more important for the social cost of methane than climate uncertainty
Frank C. Errickson, Klaus Keller, William D. Collins, Vivek Srikrishnan, David Anthoff
Nature, 592 (7885), 564-570 (2021)

 published

 repository

Neglecting uncertainties biases house-elevation decisions to manage riverine flood risks

Neglecting uncertainties biases house-elevation decisions to manage riverine flood risks
Mahkameh Zarekarizi, Vivek Srikrishnan, Klaus Keller
Nature Communications, 11, 5361 (2020)

 published

 repository

Deep uncertainties in sea-level rise and storm surge projections: Implications for coastal flood risk management

Deep uncertainties in sea-level rise and storm surge projections: Implications for coastal flood risk management
Perry C. Oddo, Ben Seiyon Lee, Gregory G. Garner, Vivek Srikrishnan, Patrick M. Reed, Chris E. Forest, Klaus Keller
Risk Analysis, 40 (1), 153-168 (2020)

 published

 repository

Investing in science to improve climate risk management

Investing in science to improve climate risk management
Vivek Srikrishnan, Richard Alley, Klaus Keller
Eos, 100 (2019)

 published

 repository

Neglecting model structural uncertainty underestimates upper tails of flood hazard

Neglecting model structural uncertainty underestimates upper tails of flood hazard
Tony E. Wong, Alexandra Klufas, Vivek Srikrishnan, Klaus Keller
Environmental Research Letters, 13 (7), 74019 (2018)

 published

 repository

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