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Reading List

Here are some papers that are essential or useful reading for members of our group. Everyone should read the papers in the General section, and the others are good starting points if the topic area is relevant or of interest.


Complex Systems and Wicked Problems

  • Rittel, H. W. J., & Webber, M. M. (1973). Dilemmas in a general theory of planning. Policy Sciences, 4(2), 155–169.
  • Carpenter, S. R., Brock, W. A., Folke, C., van Nes, E. H., & Scheffer, M. (2015). Allowing variance may enlarge the safe operating space for exploited ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112(46), 14384–14389.
  • Anderies, J. M., Rodriguez, A. A., Janssen, M. A., & Cifdaloz, O. (2007). Panaceas, uncertainty, and the robust control framework in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(39), 15194–15199.

Statistics and Uncertainty

Modeling and Model Diagnostics

  • Helgeson, C., Srikrishnan, V., Keller, K., & Tuana, N. (2021). Why Simpler Computer Simulation Models Can Be Epistemically Better for Informing Decisions. Philosophy of Science.
  • Bennett, N. D., Croke, B. F. W., Guariso, G., Guillaume, J. H. A., Hamilton, S. H., Jakeman, A. J., et al. (2013). Characterising performance of environmental models. Environmental Modelling & Software, 40, 1–20.
  • Iwanaga, T., Wang, H.-H., Hamilton, S. H., Grimm, V., Koralewski, T. E., Salado, A., et al. (2021). Socio-technical scales in socio-environmental modeling: Managing a system-of-systems modeling approach. Environmental Modelling and Software, 135, 104885.
  • Reichstein, M., Camps-Valls, G., Stevens, B., Jung, M., Denzler, J., Carvalhais, N., & Prabhat. (2019). Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science. Nature, 566(7743), 195–204.
  • Quinn, J. D., Reed, P. M., & Keller, K. (2017). Direct policy search for robust multi-objective management of deeply uncertain socio-ecological tipping points. Environmental Modelling & Software, 92, 125–141.
  • Quinn, J. D., Reed, P. M., Giuliani, M., & Castelletti, A. (2017). Rival framings: A framework for discovering how problem formulation uncertainties shape risk management trade-offs in water resources systems. Water Resources Research, 53(8), 7208–7233.

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

  • Oddo, P. C., Lee, B. S., Garner, G. G., Srikrishnan, V., Reed, P. M., Forest, C. E., & Keller, K. (2020). Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management. Risk Analysis, 40(1), 153–168.
  • Herman, J. D., Quinn, J. D., Steinschneider, S., Giuliani, M., & Fletcher, S. (2020). Climate Adaptation as a Control Problem: Review and Perspectives on Dynamic Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty. Water Resources Research, 56(2), 35.
  • Walker, W. E., Haasnoot, M., & Kwakkel, J. H. (2013). Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty. Sustainability: Science Practice and Policy, 5(3), 955–979.

Social Impacts and Risk Perception

  • Wong-Parodi, G. (2020). When climate change adaptation becomes a “looming threat” to society: Exploring views and responses to California wildfires and public safety power shutoffs. Energy Research & Social Science, 70, 101757.
  • Kunreuther, H., Novemsky, N., & Kahneman, D. (2001). Making Low Probabilities Useful. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 23(2), 103–120.
  • Mayer, L. A., Loa, K., Cwik, B., Tuana, N., Keller, K., Gonnerman, C., et al. (2017). Understanding scientists’ computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models. Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions, 42, 107–116.
  • Bessette, D. L., Mayer, L. A., Cwik, B., Vezér, M., Keller, K., Lempert, R. J., & Tuana, N. (2017). Building a Values-Informed Mental Model for New Orleans Climate Risk Management. Risk Analysis, 37(10), 1993–2004.
  • Bessette, D. L., Wilson, R. S., & Arvai, J. L. (2019). Do people disagree with themselves? Exploring the internal consistency of complex, unfamiliar, and risky decisions. Journal of Risk Research, 1–13.

Last update: June 26, 2023